Subscribers - Ranting

Another Week, Another holiday moment shared

Despite what SOME people may suggest. I have actually enjoyed this school holiday so far. Moreover; I have a family holiday next week, so time away from you guys.

 - But wait, I thought you were trying to release a load of blogs this month.
 - True, but this style takes time
 - You could do a review
 - Actually that's a good idea... wait. You just gave a good idea... amazing

So its settled next week, I shall attempt a diary of my holiday next week. Yay -_-  But anyway, on with Ranting.

During my holiday so far I have been incredibly productive! By that I mean, I've watched YouTube videos, but something occurred to me while watching some of the larger YouTubers; YouTube is a free market. To those who don't know what that is, here's Dictionary.com's explanation:

An economic system in which prices and wages are determined by unrestricted competition between businesses, without government regulation or fear of monopolies.

To some, this may sound silly, to others perfectly obvious. But to most you may be wondering why I'm taking something innocent and adding economics, again. (I really need to look into the other sciences more.) But let me explain. I came across this theory when looking at a list for most subscribed channels and noticing a trend that is currently happening.

I continue to reference this wikipedia page
I also later the Vidstatsx website, you may want to keep them open.

I concluded after looking at the most subscribed channel page on wikipedia (see graph below) that YouTube has gone through various eras in its life. While you may disagree with me this is what I made of it. Number 1 to 5 show YT in its early days when popularity came down to a small niche community, it was more of an open market with many channels able to come and go with little significance, notably this was before monitisation when it was just for fun.

#	Most subscribed user		Country of origin	MCN (at the time)	Date reached	Date surpassed	Days
1	Smosh		United States	none	May 17, 2006	June 12, 2006	26
2	judsonlaipply			none	June 12, 2006	July 3, 2006	21
3	Brookers			none	July 3, 2006	August 17, 2006	45
4	geriatric1927		United Kingdom	none	August 17, 2006	September 17, 2006	31
5	lonelygirl15		United States	none	September 17, 2006	April 26, 2007	221
6	Smosh (2)			none	April 26, 2007	September 24, 2008	517
7	nigahiga			none	September 24, 2008	October 18, 2008	24
8	Fred			none	October 18, 2008	August 20, 2009	306
9	nigahiga (2)			none	August 20, 2009	June 28, 2011	677
10	RayWilliamJohnson			Maker Studios (until Oct. 2012) Runaway Machine (after Oct. 2012)	June 28, 2011	January 12, 2013	564
11	Smosh (3)			Alloy Digital	January 12, 2013	August 15, 2013	215
12	PewDiePie		Sweden	Polaris Network (Maker Studios)	August 15, 2013	November 2, 2013	80
13	YouTube		United States	none	November 2, 2013	December 8, 2013	36
14	PewDiePie (2)		Sweden	Polaris Network (Maker Studios)	December 8, 2013	December 12, 2013	4
15	YouTube (2)		United States	none	December 12, 2013	December 23, 2013	11
16	PewDiePie (3)		Sweden	Polaris Network (Maker Studios)	December 23, 2013	present	236

The early leaders were the Channels that had become famous off one viral video; the Pokemon parody for Smosh and Evolution of Dance for Judson. This shows how easy it was to "sell" yourself, however no company had any overarching power. The most subscriber record later went to channels where they were putting out regular videos hence why Smosh remained such a prominent force. This was notable of the early YouTube, by the time Smosh retook the lead in April 2007, a new style was emerging. In June of that year, Smosh reached 100'000 subs. Meaning it had taken just over a year for one channel to reach this mark.

If we consider YouTube as the market, we can see how it grows at quite a rate. Some may argue that it stayed relatively amateur as the 1 million mark was not reached for another 2 years, but want you can't miss is that the channels after this point are still big channels who have retained their popularity. The other thing to notice after number 8 on the list is not just that they surpassed the 1 million mark but that any new channels on the list were managed by companies, rather like TV shows. While some may argue that YouTube is the business which other businesses are investing in. You could look at it and say that it is no longer a niche medium and is being Incorporated in the wider market. I point out Fred in particular because he later to have a professional career away from YouTube, like Brookers, showing how products are being taken and "sold" to other companies - TV stations.

Moving back to the issue of YT being a free market, look at its final progression at the end of the third Smosh era. When Smosh took over the lead again at the start of 2013 it had taken until the end of 2012 for RayWilliamJohnson to achieve 6 million, 6 years after the start of the Subscribe feature, however 2013 and 14 saw a large increase in subs.

In the 6 months Smosh were at the top, they achieved an impressive 11 million subs. PewDiePie would take over on 15th August 2013, two days later (1 year ago today) he achieved 12 million subs. Since then he has spiralled in views. Smosh proved it wasn't just him, the whole system exploded in subscribers and one year after this point PewDie now stands at 29 million. As the system grew the largest channels grew at a larger exponential rate compared to the rest.

So there are the three Era's. The amateur's at the beginning who relied on entertaining a small group of individuals, in their niche market. This was between number 1 - 5 or 8 if you want to consider popularity. Then 6 (9) - 11 which show the middle YT, where it became more professional and the users competed on quality content. Finally the self-promotion and Gaming Era, 12-now, where people care as much about content as actual quality, and YT thinks everyone will love a channel where topics are grouped and Google controls.

What is notable about PewDiePie is not that he is the face of the 3rd Era of YouTube, the gaming and self-promotion era. But the fact he is unlikely to be caught any time soon. Comedy Videos, which had dominated YT for so long were not being followed as they couldn't release as quickly as the gamers. Smosh upload 2 videos a week, nigahiga 1 a week, while PewDiePie can do 2 a day, it really shows that YT is a market where quantity is better than quality, this, from a site that got famous off one-off viral videos. 

The thing with PewDiePie is that he is not shrinking, as of today (17th August) he is the 2nd Largest growing channel with the no. 1 spot being a new 2nd Channel for the FineBros (so is likely to drop off soon). Also notice his rivals around him. He is growing with 230'000 new subs a week. His nearest rival in the top 30, FineBros. are only recieving 100'000 a week. PewDie's "free market" dominance is different to other channels in the past as he has built up such a gap. You take the non YT owned channels (all those not in Yellow) and you get HolaSoyGerman who is at 18 million, which is 11 million lower. Moreover, if you half PewDie's subscribers it would only put him 4th. You look at his numbers and you can easily see him not being caught. He even recently beat RihannaVEVO as the most Viewed Channel. To note, the channels are not even spread evenly. PewDiePie raced away at the front with HolaSoy and Smosh a long way behind, then another 4 million jump to RihannaVEVO and the rest of YouTube.

Video Producer	Sub Rank	Subscribers	24 Hour Sub +/-	7 Day Sub +/-	Videos	Views	Actual Rank
Music	1	86,615,629	15,492	92,719	0	0
Gaming	2	78,614,577	-8,111	-218	0	0
Sports	3	77,423,698	-990	-9,991	0	0
YouTube News	4	34,177,159	-689	-20,400	0	0
PewDiePie	5	29,771,661	33,712	230,145	1.9K	5.61 B	1
Popular on YouTube	6	28,637,731	3,101	20,999	0	0
YouTube Spotlight	7	22,086,782	209	800	199	443.3 M	2
HolaSoyGerman.	8	18,910,819	16,387	94,449	111	1.36 B	3
Smosh	9	18,581,108	11,284	68,271	405	3.53 B	4
Movies	10	18,503,862	-112	690	0	0
RihannaVEVO	11	14,371,474	6,721	43,849	81	5.28 B	5
OneDirectionVEVO	12	13,728,250	5,822	35,705	98	3.09 B	6
JennaMarbles	13	13,726,941	10,179	62,681	208	1.52 B	7
KatyPerryVEVO	14	13,326,698	13,106	78,475	82	3.81 B	8
EminemVEVO	15	13,056,958	8,996	53,757	47	3.86 B	9
nigahiga	16	12,763,090	5,923	43,120	199	1.88 B	10
Pop Music - Topic	17	11,997,331	-683	-5,072	0	0
Machinima	18	11,692,524	4,495	30,667	24.7K	5.08 B	11
TV Shows	19	11,660,103	-367	-1,844	0	0
ERB	20	10,781,469	6,137	47,642	40	1.21 B	12
RayWilliamJohnson	21	10,701,633	873	10,417	536	2.73 B	13
Education	22	10,401,287	-547	-4,549	0	0
SkyDoesMinecraft	23	10,315,596	4,358	29,514	927	2.18 B	14
Minecraft - Topic	24	9,943,879	-1,290	-8,953	0	0
JustinBieberVEVO	25	9,924,418	6,023	36,387	96	5.02 B	15
TheFineBros	26	9,671,973	18,850	102,118	652	2.02 B	16
TheEllenShow	27	9,507,386	5,116	33,363	5.3K	3.04 B	17
Rap	28	9,351,636	-357	-3,708	0	0
Porta dos Fundos	29	8,796,118	6,023	35,513	243	1.11 B	18
Werevertumorro	30	8,570,009	7,151	44,563	568	1.11 B	19

Key:
Music Channels
Gaming Channels
Comedy Channels
YouTube Channels

PewDiePie's dominance is notable because he is not being regulated. Because of the way the YT front page works, a video will be promoted if it gets a certain number of views in a particular time. He releases videos daily meaning at least one will be popular inevitably. This will drag in more views, more subscribers and thus more views for the next video, leading to even more promotion.

PewDie may have videos that his followers will only view once, as opposed to a comedy or Music video, but with him releasing at the rate he does and with that many supporters he is bound to have a popular or viral video for every upload. At the rate he is going, the only way PewDiePie will be knocked off the top spot is if he stops uploading, and why would he?

I've compared this to a free market but maybe its better I use monopoly to describe someone like PewdiePie, as I've mentioned it is unlikely that he will be caught anytime soon. If you want, see him as someone like the Coca Cola company. He does not need to do anything special and if left to produce the same products will likely stay at the top for some time, before finally getting knocked off when the market changes, but unlikely to be removed by the market getting bored. One thing to consider though is this article, written when he hit 26 million. He had been achieving a subscriber every 1.2 seconds in March 2014, but dropped to one subscriber every 2.8 seconds, while it was reported that he was achieving one subscriber every 3 seconds in July. This shows his growth is slowing, but like population, it may be slowing but it will be a long time before it evens out.

The final thing to note is the channels in the list. For the purpose of explanation I removed the YT owned channels but look at the top 2; 'Music' and 'Gaming'. Unsurprising when music and gaming channels make up a large portion of the top subscribed channels.

So there we go. My extensive rant on YouTube. Looking back it's probably better to describe it as an analysis, but rant sounds better. Also, this goes out to one of my friends who commented on my short blog lengths.
 
Aim for the moon, because even if you miss you'll be among the stars

-|CJ|-